1. According Datum poll published yesterday, half of the respondents think that PPK may be the outsider in this election. Moreover, as the media are reporting, PPK is emerging as the winner on the Internet. Before yesterday Tecnoeconomía Institute showed that Twitter has surpassed even references to Toledo, and is the only one of the five candidates head for whom positive mentions outnumber negative. In turn, the inventory at Facebook yesterday was that Toledo is still leading in number of fans (84,000), followed by PPK (74,000), but fans of PPK grow at a much faster rate: 88% (versus 15 %) in the last week, and 505% (compared to 230%) during the last month. It can be seen daily in:
http://monitor.wildfireapp.com/comparisons/59191/alejandro-toledo-vs-pedro-pablo-kuczynski-pgina-oficial-vs-luis-castaeda-lossio- keiko-sofia-vs-Fujimori Higuchi-vs-Ollanta Humala-tasso-on-facebook- # 1m.
2. Both indicators confirm the trend observed growing in my conversations with taxi drivers in Lima from 12 January to 14 February, indicating an increased intention to vote for them and their environments by PPK, and referred to it as the outsider candidate who "can give the coup. " Report on the topic in several previous columns on my blog, El Nuevo Sol, before an audience then quite skeptical. What conclusion sack? That taxi drivers go before Internet and the Internet before the polls.
3. The CPI polling firm explained that the disparate results of two surveys his simultaneous (one Keiko before Castro and the other in reverse) are due to the methodology in questioning the respondent differs between them. If we add the variability in results depending on: (a) sample design, (b), in my opinion, these tiny sizes (between 1000 and 2000 people), and (c) the statistical distribution that follows the universe of voters (something that is unknown about what the interviewer makes an arbitrary assumption), the conclusion reached is that the margin of error is between -2 and +2%, but possibly to between +7% and -7% ... Hence the famous phrase that "there are surveys for all hearts, tastes and pockets." While it is logical that the respondents answered the critics and defend that Electoral Board wants to get their hands on their work, which is unheard of is that "tearing his hair out" as if their companies belonging to one of the hierarchies of angels and the scientific rigor of a nature sacred and unquestionable. It must be clear that the pollsters are subject to public scrutiny and, having so much at stake, unfortunately, can not be ruled episodes of corruption.
4. I predict that in 15 days PPK reached in intention to vote and Humala in the first round would be the winning candidate in Lima, if you pass or fail the second round, is another story, depending on how you go in the provinces. My advice is to abandon the unrealistic and cheesy sanisidrino environment and install your campaign headquarters in the provinces. Where? In Trujillo!
5. Vengo conducting a survey of comments from blog readers about: (a) the best candidates for Congress, and (b) the best economic team. Congress, the favorite of the readers are, in this order: Juan José Garrido (Forward), Irma Montes (Force 2011), Raul Villanueva (Forward), Manuel Estela (Solidaridad Nacional), Luis Galarreta (Alliance for the Great Change) , Daniel Cordova (Alliance for the Great Shift) and Fernán Altuve Force (2011). As economic teams, readers say the best is the Alliance for the Great Change, directed by Pablo Secada.
Submission of proposals
If the aim was to flatten the pitch to give all candidates-including the "Smurfs" - stands facing the population, because it was not possible. The event was broadcast on cable (Canal N) and the Internet. I followed the internet and monitor the scoring of online surfers in prime time soon came to 5.500, or practically nothing. Why was broadcast on Canal N and not on public airwaves? I guess probably because one (s) of giant candidates should have objected.
Due to space limitations, I refer only to issues of social inclusion and education. The presentation that I liked was that of Rafael Belaunde, Adelante. The other candidates made proposals that would trigger from the Executive, to win the election. Belaunde diagnosis that left the state bureaucracy is excessive and, in general, inefficient and interfering with the decisions of, and even impersonate the individual. Proposed to remove the tape and transfer it to the individual. In education, brandished evidence that, even in classes, parents increasingly opt more to educate their children in private schools, paying them the cost, arguing that the cost per student is, in many cases lower than that of public education, raised a delivery system of educational vouchers to parents who choose schools private so they can cover the cost. That is, that the State promote effective competition between private and public education. Belaunde was also the only one who defended unstintingly Carrera Magisterial reform adopted by the current government. His proposal that the State endow each student with an electronic book (type Kindle) to ease the burden of textbooks was original, as well as effective. I think the total cost would not exceed $ 800 million. A good investment.
major candidates were, in my opinion, victims of electoral advisers and focus groups, and consequently, their performances ended up being lists of good intentions, promises, and gifts of state to target groups, some of the Offers also are contrary to economic efficiency. For example, several talked of doubling the salary of teachers (to increase the education budget to 6 or 7% of GDP) and raise salaries of civil servants, police and military rise, without subordinating transparently to the efforts and improvements training of each teacher or staff member. In this Humala was able to refer explicitly to meritocracy and probably the majority vote of the teachers under his belt, anyway.
The challenge of public housing raised the PPK, with its satellite towns proposed light rail connection, and Keiko in his reference to bring water services, sanitation, electricity and access to popular human settlements, which Alberto Fujimori launched in the early nineties. In this chapter, one of the most lucid and effective night was when Castro spoke of his contribution to social inclusion projects in the shantytowns stairs and contrasted with the insensitivity of the transient "off" in their trip to South Beach. I have to say that the housing deficit "dignity" in Peru is 1,500 units, and that without progress on this issue stops achieving 15 of the 21 targets of the Millennium Development Goals set by the United Nations 2000.
The highlight of the evening was undoubtedly when Juliana Reymer, questioning the term "social inclusion" and proposing instead "social cohesion" snapped one: And where they want to include this chola?; sounded like a frontal critique of the idea of \u200b\u200ba state planner who decides to protect its citizens.
It would be a pity that some of the proposals Belaunde Forward Party were lost. The list of candidates to overtake the Congress, headed by Juan José Garrido, Lima, is, in my view, of first and is nourished by competent professionals, with no cases pending and full of new faces, as none has been congressman. A step forward in the regeneration of Congress, whose term Belaunde wants to reduce to 2 and a half years ..
(*) English economist and teacher. He has served as Chief Economist European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (1993-2003), a senior official Inter-American Bank of Development (1991-1993), World Bank (1985-1991) and Director of Economic Policy of the Ministry of Finance of Mexico (1982-85). Between 1987 and 1993 was in charge of the office of Peru in the World Bank.
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