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First of all, my condolences to the families of the nearly 100 000 victims of the earthquake in Japan and also to the martyrs of the tyrant Moammar Gadhafi. Our condemnation of the handful of dictators who still support him and the hesitation of the international community to enforce a "no-fly zone" as insurgency government rightly demands. My gratitude to the authorities of France and the UK to be the only ones so far have promoted the measure.
Some saw that the global economic recovery was fragile and precarious before the riots in the Arab world and the earthquake yesterday. Now the picture looks really bad. The explosion at a nuclear power plant in northern Japan is the worst nuclear accident since Chernobyl. This is likely to stop global expansion plans of this energy source to alleviate the problem of price and oil supply as a result of instability in the Persian Gulf. "Oil at 150 or 200 dollars a barrel? Possibly. In my opinion, the international relapse is imminent. I think we live a decade of low growth and high inflation. Which believe that the reconstruction of Japan will contribute to an improvement in the global economy are wrong, read the "parable of the broken glass" that the French economist Frederic Bastiat wrote in 1850 about the economic fallacy known. Before yesterday
Mercedes Araoz congressmen criticized the Facebook as follows: "The Congress will address relevant issues and not laws that serve economic interest groups, used cars, sugar, etc. What .-. if they pass the law that sent the Executive, 9 months ago on a national natural disaster prevention? I do not want to imagine an earthquake like Japan here and not have a system of risk prevention and effective. It is important that voters be documented before they vote on what they have been doing these years the candidates repeat.
began my column last Sunday Mail saying that: "According to the Datum poll yesterday, half of the respondents think that PPK may be the outsider in this election." Javier Kapsoli-ex MEF official and now the IMF, "he said on Facebook:" What it says is DATUM that 37% thought that there would be an outsider and that 37%, 50% thought it would PPK ". I acknowledge my error, I retract. And I thank Javier for alerting.
I think, in any case, which include outsider's questions in the survey, Datum makes an interesting contribution, both percentages are significant signal value to five weeks of the first round. And the reason is that in my conversations with some 200 taxi drivers in Lima from 13 January to 14 February, and other less systematic but also relevant to waiters in restaurants became clear to me three essential factors in play. First, in general none of the four candidates to head excited. Second, I noticed that the voting intentions of most of my partners was tangled by tactical voting, or tactical voting: vote for A because I do not want B is elected, I prefer to C, but I will not vote for him because he has no chance; Now, if 10% passes, then change my vote. Third, I noted an increasing trend of recognition of the intention to vote for PPK. It has the advantage of lower anti sense than the rest.
My perception was corroborated by the increasing acquired by Kuczynski leadership in social networks from 21 February. On that day, Toledo already had 72.000 fans on Facebook and PPK with only 21,000; on March 6, both numbers had been leveled, and five days later (on Friday 11 at 11 pm) PPK fans amounted to 117.774, well above the 85.171 of Toledo. Furthermore, within the category of "political" ("Politicians") on Facebook, PPK has been the world's second largest number of fans that has accumulated in the last seven days (52,000) after Barack Obama (58,000). We can see from the internet link http://goo.gl/GLB1l. The reader of my blog Miguel Zúñiga I posted a comment raising questions about whether the growth is genuine fans of PPK or the campaign is generating computer fans (something known as s-Crypt program.) I have asked the campaign of PPK and receive the following response: "Regarding your concern I note emphatically that we did not use any robot or sw or s-crypt or fake profiles or any kind of mechanism to grow PPK page ... We submit to any audit to demonstrate this, because we have absolutely nothing to hide. Baella Alfonso Herrera - Baella Consulting.
And finally, the polls are starting to detect the rise for PPK. I suggest to the interviewers that arise one of two methods: (a) before asking Who will you vote, ask who you prefer to be president, or (b) dividing the sample into two and a half to submit the question of who prefer the other half to the question of who will vote . So we know what the bias of tactical voting.
missing four weeks for the first round, with an outsider on the scene are an eternity. It seems that PPK and spread like an outsider, and if we go by the precedents of Fujimori in elections in 1990 (interestingly also for Vice President Maximo San Roman) and Villa in 2010, the translation of votes can completely change the electoral map.
few weeks ago most voters did not identify PPK. Interestingly, former President Toledo, in a gesture that honors him, but that clearly was a political mistake, told a conference in Adex: "This time the MEF no longer handle the presidency, now I have experience." Indeed, PPK managed the finances for three years five and a half of toledo.
conclusion, the looming global economic situation is complicated. The candidates generally ignore a possible relapse and promise to bring to Peru a social welfare state, Scandinavian. People can not believe it because it has no confidence in government.
I think the citizens will increasingly make the following two questions: Which presidential candidate has the best credentials to manage the economy to a new international crisis? How to manage the event of an earthquake intensity of Japan? And that's where I think PPK than the rest.
Me to make the risky venture that PPK predicted would win the presidency in a runoff. Knock on wood ..
Ricardo V. Lake is an economist and English teacher. He has served as Chief Economist European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (1993-2003), a senior official of the Inter-American Development Bank (1991-1993), World Bank (1985-1991) and Director of Economic Policy Secretary of Finance of Mexico (1982-85). Between 1987 and 1993 was in charge of the office of Peru in the World Bank.
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